GAME TIME:
11:00:00 AM, October 05, 2024
SPORT/LEAGUE:
NCAA Football
TEAMS:
Texas A&M
Missouri
OVER/UNDER:
Under 48.5
PROP BET:
Mizz +3
UNIT: 1.0
ANALYSIS:
Texas A&M vs. Missouri: Betting Preview and Analysis
Picks: Missouri +2.5 and Under 48.5
Why Missouri is the Play
This game feels like a true toss-up, and the only reason Texas A&M is favored is due to home-field advantage. However, A&M has historically struggled against quality opponents at home, making this line more about perception than reality.
- Missouri's Road Success: The Tigers have been solid away from home, going 4-0 ATS on the road last year, which included a win as a road dog at Kentucky and a close game against Georgia. This is Missouri’s first road trip of the season, which might be the jolt they need to play their best football. Expect Missouri to rise to the occasion in a key matchup that could define their season.
Defensive Battle Ahead
Both teams boast strong defenses, and the matchups favor a low-scoring affair. Missouri’s defense has been elite, giving up just 219 yards per game (3rd fewest nationally) and 12 points per game (8th fewest). Similarly, Texas A&M has held its last four opponents to under 20 points, making this a game where points will come at a premium.
- Sluggish Offenses: While Texas A&M has shown flashes of improvement with QB Marcel Reed, they still struggle to maintain offensive consistency against disciplined defenses. Missouri, on the other hand, has been a step slower on offense, relying heavily on their defensive unit to keep games close.
Why the Under is the Best Bet
Given the strengths of both defenses and the conservative offensive approaches we’re likely to see, this game should stay well under the 48.5-point total. We’re projecting a grind-it-out style game where field position and clock management will be key. A final score in the range of 24-21 feels like the most realistic outcome, which comfortably cashes the under.
Final Verdict
With Missouri’s strong track record on the road and Texas A&M’s offensive inconsistency, take Missouri +3 and play the Under 48.5. This game should be a physical, low-scoring contest where every possession will matter.
Predicted Score: Missouri 20, Texas A&M 19.
Results
Loss, Loss
Pick Made 8:30:00 AM, October 04, 2024