GAME TIME:
4:00:00 PM, October 05, 2024
SPORT/LEAGUE:
NCAA Football
TEAMS:
S Dakato
N. Iowa
PROP BET:
UNI +21.5
UNIT: 1.0
ANALYSIS:
South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. Northern Iowa Panthers: Betting Preview and Analysis
Pick: Northern Iowa +21
Why We’re Backing Northern Iowa
South Dakota State is the reigning two-time national champion, and there’s no doubt they should win this game. However, the line has moved beyond the key number of 21 points, making Northern Iowa the value play here. No reliable models project the Jackrabbits to win by more than 16 points, making the current spread too steep.
Key Factors in Northern Iowa’s Favor
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Bye Week Advantage: Northern Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Head coach Mark Farley has a stellar record following a bye week, going 17-5 overall, including a 10-0 mark at home. With extra preparation time, the Panthers are in a great spot to keep this game competitive.
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Home-Field Success: Farley’s teams are also 9-1 in conference home openers, and the last two meetings between these teams at the UNI Dome have been decided by just one score. Playing in their home stadium, the Panthers have shown they can hang tough against top-tier opponents.
Ground Game to Shorten the Game
Northern Iowa’s best chance to cover lies in controlling the clock and keeping the Jackrabbits’ high-powered offense off the field. The Panthers have a formidable rushing attack led by Tye Edwards, who is averaging a conference-best 7.72 yards per carry, and Amauri Pesek-Hickson, with 5.67 yards per carry. If they can establish the run and extend drives, they’ll be able to limit South Dakota State’s scoring opportunities.
Final Verdict: Play Northern Iowa +21.5
South Dakota State is the better team, but this line is inflated. With Farley’s strong track record off a bye and at home, coupled with Northern Iowa’s ability to control tempo, the Panthers should keep it closer than expected.
Predicted Score: South Dakota State 31, Northern Iowa 20
Play Northern Iowa +21.5, as they have the tools and the situational edge to cover this large spread.
Results
Loss
Pick Made 8:00:00 AM, October 04, 2024