GAME TIME:
11:00:00 AM, October 05, 2024
SPORT/LEAGUE:
NCAA Football
TEAMS:
SMU
Louisville
PROP BET:
SMU +7 (-115) ML + 200
UNIT: 2.0
ANALYSIS:
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals: Betting Preview and Analysis
Picks: SMU +7
Why We’re Backing SMU
We’re taking a two-pronged approach here by backing SMU against the spread. The Mustangs are in top form, and the value on a +7 spread and a +200 moneyline is hard to ignore. SMU has been rolling offensively, scoring a combined 108 points in their last two games and dominating opponents like TCU and Florida State. With the offense firing on all cylinders and a rested defense ready to pressure the quarterback, SMU is poised to cause trouble for a worn-down Louisville squad.
SMU’s Offensive Surge
- Red-Hot Offense: The Mustangs’ offense has found its rhythm, racking up over 200 rushing yards in each of the past two games while maintaining a balanced attack under quarterback Jennings. The improved ground game has added another dimension, making it difficult for defenses to key in on any single aspect of their offense.
Louisville’s Vulnerability
Louisville has just endured back-to-back physical matchups, scraping out a win against Georgia Tech and then falling short in a tough 24-17 loss to Notre Dame. These taxing games could leave the Cardinals vulnerable against a fresh and hungry SMU team. This is a classic letdown spot, and with the Mustangs surging, it’s the perfect opportunity for an underdog play.
Key Factors
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Better Form & Matchup Advantage: SMU’s current form is simply better than Louisville’s. The Mustangs are riding high with confidence and have shown the ability to dominate both offensively and defensively. Meanwhile, Louisville’s schedule has taken its toll, and they may struggle to keep up with a fast-paced and balanced SMU attack.
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Play at the Line of Scrimmage: With SMU’s offense clicking and their defensive front rested and aggressive, they have the edge at the line of scrimmage. If the Mustangs can continue winning battles up front, they’ll be able to control the tempo and force Louisville into uncomfortable situations.
Final Verdict: Back SMU Both ATS & Moneyline
We see a strong chance for an outright SMU win here, so we’re sprinkling the SMU moneyline at +200 while grabbing a full touchdown with SMU +7. The Mustangs’ superior form, offensive balance, and Louisville’s fatigue make SMU a live underdog.
Predicted Score: SMU 31, Louisville 27
Play SMU +7 and consider a Moneyline Sprinkle on the Mustangs to pull off the upset!
Results
Winner
Pick Made 7:00:00 AM, October 05, 2024