GAME TIME:
3:05:00 PM, September 29, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NFL

TEAMS:
San Francisco 49ers
Patriots

PROP BET:
New England -10' (-110)

UNIT: 1.0

ANALYSIS:

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: Patriots +10'

Why the 49ers are Overvalued

Double-digit spreads this early in the season are rare and usually reserved for dominant favorites — not for teams dealing with a laundry list of injuries and back-to-back losses. The 49ers, now facing significant setbacks, are overvalued at this number.

• Injury Concerns: San Francisco is without three of its main offensive playmakers — Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. Their absence severely hampers the 49ers’ offensive game plan and puts immense pressure on QB Brock Purdy, who has been effective when surrounded by a full arsenal of weapons but struggles when asked to carry the load. To make matters worse, Purdy is also nursing a sore back, limiting his mobility and effectiveness.

Defensive Struggles for San Francisco

• Leaky Defense: The 49ers’ defense, once considered elite, has shown cracks. They rank near the bottom of the league in critical metrics, allowing the third most yards per snap and the second most third-down conversions. This lack of defensive efficiency makes it difficult to trust them to cover a double-digit spread, especially when the offense is limited.

Patriots are Being Undervalued

The Patriots are performing better than expected, proving preseason projections wrong. They won their opener convincingly and took their second game to overtime. Despite a tough schedule and a retooled roster, New England has been competitive in each outing.

• Close Contests: New England’s ability to stay in games, even as underdogs, should not be overlooked. They play disciplined football and capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, making them a tough team to blow out.

Final Verdict: Patriots +10

This line should be much closer to single digits given the circumstances. With the 49ers banged up and struggling defensively, it’s hard to justify them as such heavy favorites. Expect the Patriots to keep this game competitive and cover the double-digit spread.

Results

Pick Made 6:30:00 PM, September 28, 2024