GAME TIME:
7:15:00 PM, October 10, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NFL

TEAMS:
SF
Seahawks

PROP BET:
SF -3 (-125)

UNIT: 2.0

ANALYSIS:

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: 49ers -3* (-125)

Why We’re Backing San Francisco

This is a critical game for the 49ers, as a loss would put them in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs. Despite their recent struggles, the 49ers still rank 4th in the NFL in Net EPA per drive at 0.72, indicating they’ve been more efficient than their record suggests. The current line of -3.5 at +100 offers better value than the -3 at -125 that’s also available. Even at -3.5, San Francisco should be the play given the circumstances and the matchup. We took minus 3 earlier and adding at -3 at -125.

Scheduling and Injuries Favor the 49ers

Seattle finds itself in a brutal scheduling spot, having played on Monday Night Football just two weeks ago and now facing a quick turnaround for a Thursday night game. Their defense is riddled with injuries and has shown significant vulnerability, giving up 29 points to a struggling Giants offense in their last outing. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ absences, though notable, are not as impactful as the injuries Seattle is dealing with—particularly on the defensive side.

San Francisco’s Edge at the Line of Scrimmage

The Seahawks are compromised at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which spells trouble against a physical 49ers team that excels in the trenches. Even though San Francisco hasn’t been at its best, their running game remains potent, and Brock Purdy has a 109.2 passer rating against the Seahawks. Expect the 49ers to control the line of scrimmage and dominate time of possession.

Recent Matchup History & ATS Trends

San Francisco has won five straight games against Seattle, and they’ll be motivated to keep that streak alive. The 49ers are 10-5-1 ATS on the road against NFC West opponents since 2019, while the Seahawks have struggled to cover at home in the division, going 6-9 ATS in the same span. Seattle’s home-field advantage has diminished, as they’re just 4-5-2 ATS at home since the start of 2023.

Seattle’s Overinflated Record

The Seahawks’ 3-2 record is a bit misleading. Their wins have come against lesser competition, including games against Bo Nix making his NFL debut, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. When facing more competent quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Daniel Jones, the Seahawks’ defense was shredded, allowing a combined 41 of 52 passes to be completed for four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Purdy falls into that category of efficient quarterbacks who can take advantage of Seattle’s weaknesses.

Key Injuries for the Seahawks

Top cornerback Riq Woolen left the Giants game with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable. With their secondary already thin, this could be a significant factor against a 49ers offense that can exploit mismatches. Adding to their woes, this will be Seattle’s third game in 11 days, leaving them at a disadvantage from a fatigue standpoint.

Final Verdict: Play the 49ers -3

With Seattle’s defensive injuries and a brutal schedule working against them, this is the perfect “get-right” spot for San Francisco. The 49ers have the advantage at the line of scrimmage, and Purdy should have another strong outing against a struggling Seahawks secondary. The current spread should be closer to -5, so grab San Francisco -3.5 while it’s available.

Predicted Score: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20

Play 49ers -3 as they bounce back and continue their dominance over Seattle.

Results

Pick Made 10:00:00 AM, October 10, 2024