Betting Preview: Under 78.5 Total Points
Pick: Under 78.5
Why We’re Backing the Under
Totals as high as 78.5 are becoming rare in college football, and for good reason. Recent changes to clock rules have reduced the number of possessions in games, which makes the high-scoring, back-and-forth touchdown festivals much less common. While neither defense in this matchup is particularly strong, we’re skeptical that there will be enough possessions to hit such an inflated total.
Fewer Possessions with New Clock Rules
The new clock rules have impacted the overall pace of games, leading to fewer possessions and less time for offenses to pile on points. These changes favor the under in games with high totals like this one, as there simply aren’t as many opportunities for both teams to keep up a relentless scoring pace.
Defensive Concerns, But...
We don't believe in either of these defenses, but even with lackluster defensive play, this number is too high. A few key moments — such as punts or turnovers — can easily stall drives and disrupt scoring momentum, even if those turnovers don’t turn into defensive touchdowns.
High Total, High Risk for Over
At 78.5 points, this is the highest total we've seen this season. While it’s tempting to wait and see if the total reaches 80, we’re confident in playing the under here. Games with totals this high leave very little margin for error, and even just a few scoreless drives could make all the difference.
Final Verdict: Play the Under 78.5
Given the recent changes in game tempo and the high number set for this matchup, we’re taking the Under 78.5. Even with bad defenses, the odds of both teams reaching this total are slim, especially with fewer possessions and the risk of punts and turnovers disrupting scoring drives.
Predicted Score: 41-35
Play Under 78.5, as the new clock rules and potential for stalled drives make this high total difficult to reach.