LOSS - 5.5 Units
NCAAF Betting Preview: SMU vs. PSU – December 16, 2024
SMU +8.5 (-105)
This matchup feels primed for SMU to stay competitive and potentially cover late in the game. SMU has shown resilience, losing just two games all season by a combined six points. Meanwhile, Penn State has struggled to cover against ranked opponents, failing to cover in their last six ATS vs. ranked teams. SMU’s high-powered offense and ability to keep games close make this an appealing underdog play, even in a challenging road environment.
Key Stats & Trends:
- Penn State’s struggles against top offenses, including losses to Oregon and Ohio State.
- SMU’s 11-2 record and 8-5 ATS performance this season.
- Penn State did not cover in their two marquee matchups this year.
Pick Made: Dec 10, 6:59 PM CST on BetMGM
Over 53.5 (-114)
This total feels achievable given the weaknesses in SMU’s pass defense. The Mustangs rank 94th against the pass, giving up 242 yards per game, which was exploited in the ACC Championship by Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (262 yards, 4 TDs). Penn State QB Drew Allar should find similar success against SMU’s secondary. On the other side, SMU QB Kevin Jennings is a dual-threat who can break off big plays as both a runner and passer, even if the Mustangs struggle to sustain long drives.
The second half could open up as Penn State’s offensive line wears down SMU’s defensive front. With both teams capable of creating explosive plays, this game has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Key Stats & Trends:
- SMU allows 242 passing yards per game, ranking 94th nationally.
- Penn State’s offense should take advantage of SMU’s defensive weaknesses.
- SMU’s dual-threat QB Kevin Jennings adds big-play potential.
Pick Made: Dec 10, 5:30 PM CST on FanDuel
Expert Insights
We see SMU as a live underdog capable of keeping this close. While Penn State should win, the Mustangs' offense is explosive enough to hang within a score. A 27-23 final score feels realistic, which gives value to both SMU +8.5 and the over.
Penn State's defense will face challenges against SMU’s dynamic offense. The Mustangs thrive in high-stakes games, and while Penn State’s home-field advantage is notable, the 8.5-point spread feels inflated. SMU can cover.
Penn State’s passing attack will exploit SMU’s porous secondary, while the Mustangs’ playmakers can create big moments against a strong but not impenetrable defense. We expect this game to hit the over comfortably, especially with potential late-game scoring.
Bet Recap
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Main Spread Bet:
- SMU +8.5 (-105), 1.0 Units
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Over/Under Bet:
- Over 53.5 (-114), 1.0 Unit
We’re backing SMU to cover the spread and for the total to go over in what should be an exciting game with plenty of offensive fireworks. Let’s cash in!
NCAAF Betting Preview: Clemson vs. Texas – December 16, 2024
Game Details
- Time: 6:30 PM CST
- Total: Under 51 (-110)
- Units: 2.0
Game Analysis: Under 51 (-110)
Gene Menez's Insight:
We’re taking the under in this matchup, and here’s why:
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Clemson's Struggles Against SEC Defenses:
The Tigers have faced two SEC defenses this season—Georgia and South Carolina—and recorded their worst offensive outings, scoring just 3 and 14 points in those games. With Texas boasting arguably the best defense in the country (12.5 points allowed per game, second-best nationally), Clemson’s offense is in for another tough test. -
Key Injuries for Clemson:
Running the ball will be a challenge for the Tigers, as Phil Mafah is playing through a shoulder injury, and backup Jay Haynes is out with a torn ACL. This lack of depth will make it even harder for Clemson to move the chains. -
Texas Offense in a Slump:
While the Longhorns' defense is stellar, their offense has sputtered recently. Texas has scored 20 points or fewer in two of its last three games, with QB Quinn Ewers stuck in a funk. -
Strong Defensive Matchup:
With both teams struggling offensively and Texas’ elite defense likely to dictate the game’s pace, this has all the makings of a low-scoring battle.
Key Stats & Trends:
- Texas allows just 12.5 PPG, second-best in the nation.
- Clemson scored only 17 combined points in its two games against SEC defenses this year.
- Both teams are dealing with offensive inefficiencies, further boosting the case for the under.
Expert Recommendation
We’re locking in Under 51 as the top play for this game, confident that both defenses will shine and points will come at a premium.
Pick Recap:
- Bet: Under 51 (-110)
- Units: 2.0
Let’s ride the under in what should be a defensive showcase!
NCAAF Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Game Details
- Date: December 16, 2024
- Time: 7:00 PM CST
- Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-109)
- Units: 1.0
Analysis
The public is heavy on Tennessee, and for good reason. Ohio State is coming off a disappointing performance against Michigan, leaving many questioning Ryan Day's future. While the Buckeyes will be motivated to make a statement offensively, their banged-up offensive line presents a significant issue against Tennessee's strong defensive front.
Tennessee’s ability to disrupt the Buckeyes' running game will force QB Will Howard to carry the offense, which plays into the Volunteers' hands. Tennessee’s offense is also equipped to keep pace, making this game much closer than the spread suggests.
The key to this matchup lies in Tennessee's run game. The Volunteers are built similarly to Ohio State and won’t shy away from a physical contest. Metrics favor Tennessee in several key areas:
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Yardage Differential vs. Bowl Teams:
- Tennessee: +83 yards
- Ohio State: +18 yards
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Point Differential vs. Bowl Teams:
- Tennessee: +6 points
- Ohio State: +5 points
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Special Teams Edge:
- Tennessee ranks 43rd in net punt yards, compared to Ohio State at 94th.
Additionally, Tennessee has consistently performed against strong competition, holding five opponents to season-low yardage totals. The Volunteers excel on Field Turf, covering the spread in all four games on the surface this season.
Key Stats & Trends
- Tennessee ATS: 7-5 this season, including 4-0 on Field Turf.
- Ohio State Offensive Line: Dealing with injuries, likely limiting the run game effectiveness.
- Defensive Strengths: Tennessee's defensive line can neutralize Ohio State’s running attack.
Expert Recommendation
Tennessee’s physicality on both sides of the ball and metrics favoring the Volunteers against bowl-level competition make +7.5 an attractive play. With Ohio State's offensive line issues and Tennessee’s consistent defensive performance, this game should come down to a field goal.
Pick Recap
- Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-109)
- Confidence: 1.0 Unit
Let’s ride with the Volunteers to keep this one close!