NCAA Baskeball 12.14.24

NCAA Baskeball 12.14.24

College Basketball Preview: Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Dayton Flyers


Game Details

  • Date: December 14, 2024
  • Time: 6:00 PM CST
  • League: NCAA Basketball
  • Location: Dayton, OH

Pick

  • Point Spread: Dayton -1 (-104)
  • Units: 2.0 WIN

Analysis

Why We’re Backing Dayton

  • Home Dominance:

    • Dayton is a perfect 7-0 straight up (SU) at home this season, showcasing their ability to protect their home court.
    • The Flyers have won 23 consecutive games at home, building one of the strongest homecourt advantages in college basketball.
  • Efficiency on Both Ends:

    • The Flyers are shooting 60% inside the arc at home, making them one of the most efficient teams offensively.
    • Dayton also protects the ball exceptionally well, limiting turnovers and maximizing possessions.
  • Marquette’s Road Struggles:

    • The Golden Eagles are playing only their third road game of the season and have struggled offensively on the road, shooting under 50% inside the arc.
    • While Marquette is a balanced team, they lack a reliable long-range shooting presence, which could hurt them against Dayton’s strong perimeter defense.
  • Experienced Guard Play:

    • Dayton’s guards bring a wealth of experience, helping the Flyers excel in limiting opponents’ opportunities from beyond the arc. This defensive strength could be a key factor against Marquette’s inconsistent shooting.

Key Stats to Consider

  • Dayton at Home:

    • 60% shooting inside the arc.
    • 23-game home winning streak.
  • Marquette on the Road:

    • Shooting below 50% inside the arc.
  • Perimeter Defense:

    • Dayton's guards effectively defend against three-point shooters, neutralizing one of Marquette’s offensive avenues.

Projected Outcome

  • Score Prediction: Dayton 71, Marquette 66
  • Why Flyers Cover: Dayton’s elite homecourt advantage and efficient offense give them the edge against a Marquette team that struggles to find consistency on the road.

Bet Summary

  • Dayton -1 (-104)
    Confidence Level: High. Dayton’s home dominance and matchup advantages make this a strong spot to back the Flyers.

 

College Basketball Preview: Utah Valley Wolverines vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks


Game Details

  • Date: December 14, 2024
  • Time: 4:00 PM CST
  • League: NCAA Basketball
  • Location: Pete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville, AL

Pick

  • Money Line: Jacksonville State -150
  • Units: 2.0 (WIN)

Analysis

Why We’re Backing Jacksonville State

  • Strong Home Court Advantage:

    • Jacksonville State is one of the best in the nation at avoiding fouls, and being at home, they’re more likely to get favorable calls.
    • The Gamecocks are excellent on the glass, ranking near the top in defensive rebounding, which allows them to control possessions and limit second-chance points.
  • Travel Concerns for Utah Valley:

    • Utah Valley is 1-4 on the road, struggling to perform away from home.
    • The trip from Orem, Utah, to Jacksonville, Alabama, is no small task. The travel challenges could leave the Wolverines fatigued, especially with a conference opener looming on Tuesday.
  • Model Confidence:

    • Our model projects Jacksonville State by 7 points, making the current line look like a solid value play.
    • The line has moved in favor of Jacksonville State since opening, which suggests sharp money backing the Gamecocks.
  • Momentum for Jax State:

    • The Gamecocks have been consistent at home and bring an edge with their disciplined style of play. They don’t make mistakes that give opponents easy points, particularly at home.

Key Stats to Consider

  • Jacksonville State:

    • Among the national leaders in fewest fouls per game.
    • Elite on the boards with top-tier defensive rebounding numbers.
  • Utah Valley Road Struggles:

    • 1-4 away from home this season.
    • Likely looking ahead to a conference opener early next week.

Projected Outcome

  • Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 73, Utah Valley 66
  • Why the Gamecocks Win: With a disciplined defense, home-court advantage, and Utah Valley’s poor road performances, Jacksonville State is well-positioned to secure the win.

Bet Summary

  • Jacksonville State Money Line (-150)
    Confidence Level: Moderate to High. The Gamecocks’ strengths align well with Utah Valley’s struggles, making them the logical play in this matchup.

 

 

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