Jaguars vs. Bills: Why Back Jacksonville +6

GAME TIME:
6:30:00 PM, September 23, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NFL

TEAMS:
Jacksonville
Buffalo

PROP BET:
Jacksonville + 6 (-110)

UNIT: 1.0

ANALYSIS:

Jaguars vs. Bills: Why Back Jacksonville +6

Over his last seven starts, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are winless, but this creates a prime value spot due to an overreaction. Jacksonville has stayed competitive in both of their games this season, largely thanks to their defense in two close losses. It’s worth noting that Jacksonville excelled in last year’s London 25-20 win over Buffalo, where the defense held the Bills to just 29 rushing yards. Lawrence also had one of his two 300-yard passing games during that matchup.

Key Points to Consider:

Buffalo's Recent Offensive Success: The Bills have scored 30 points in back-to-back games to start the season. However, their offensive performance has not been as strong as it appears. They benefited from excellent field position in the Miami game and struggled to find rhythm against a weak Arizona defense.
Jaguars' Close Losses: Despite their 0-2 start, Jacksonville could easily be 2-0. A Travis Etienne goal-line fumble in Week 1 and a narrow Week 2 loss were the difference. This makes them a strong candidate for a bounce-back.
Injury Impact for the Bills: Buffalo is dealing with key injuries, including the absence of defensive signal-caller LB Terrel Bernard and DB Taron Johnson. This leaves their defense vulnerable, especially considering how the Jags torched them for 474 yards last year.
Explosive Plays by Jacksonville: While Jacksonville has only scored 30 points through two games, they have managed to create explosive offense, hitting on 8 plays of 20+ yards. This shows they have the firepower to compete, even against a tough defense.

Betting Angle:

The wide spread in favor of the Bills feels like an overreaction. Jacksonville is a team that's been unlucky and is now in a prime “buy-low” spot, while Buffalo is a “sell-high” candidate after their recent performances. Consider grabbing the points with Jacksonville and even buying the spread to +6 at -125 odds. With the potential for a backdoor cover, the Jags are a live underdog in this matchup.

Pick Made 2:30:00 PM, September 23, 2024