Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears: Betting Preview and Analysis
Pick: Under 45
Why We’re Backing the Under
Both the Jaguars and Bears have trends and conditions favoring a low-scoring game, especially in an international setting. The Jaguars’ offense has struggled outside of their matchups with the Colts, and they’ve consistently hit the under in recent games. In fact, the Jaguars have gone under in six straight games in London, with those games averaging just 37.8 points — 7 points below the total.
Key Trends Supporting the Under
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London Games Tend to Go Under: Since 2019, London games have gone 20-8 to the Under, averaging around 40 points per game. Teams often struggle offensively when playing abroad due to the travel and unfamiliar environment, and we expect this trend to continue in this matchup.
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Bears Defense Is Legit: The Bears have an impressive defense that excels almost across the board, except for defending the run. Fortunately for Chicago, the Jaguars can’t run the ball effectively, so the Bears should be able to limit Jacksonville’s offense. Chicago’s defense has kept four of their games under this total, and we don’t see Jacksonville breaking through against them.
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Trevor Lawrence’s History: Trevor Lawrence has a track record of hitting the under against NFC teams, going 9-5 to the under, with an average game total of 45.5 points — right in line with this game. Lawrence has struggled to find consistency, and we don’t expect this game to be any different, especially given the travel and the Bears’ defensive strength.
Additional Factors
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Both Teams Have Under Trends: The Bears are 2-0 to the under on the road this season, and the Jaguars are 2-0 to the under when the total is set below 45 points. These trends align with a lower-scoring game in this international setting.
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Public Overreaction to the Total: While public bets are skewed toward the Over, the market hasn’t moved much, suggesting a lack of confidence in a high-scoring game. We’re leaning towards the under based on the defensive strengths of Chicago and Jacksonville’s inconsistent offense.
Final Verdict: Play the Under 45
Given the history of low-scoring international games, the Jaguars’ struggles on offense, and the Bears’ strong defense, we believe this matchup will stay under 45 points. The public may be leaning toward the Over, but we’re trusting the trends and defensive play of both teams to keep this a low-scoring affair.
Predicted Score: Jaguars 20, Bears 17
Play Under 45, as both teams should struggle to break through offensively, especially in the unique conditions of a London game.