GAME TIME:
12:00:00 PM, October 06, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NFL

TEAMS:
Indy
Tennessee

PROP BET:
Tenn -1.5

UNIT: 1.0

ANALYSIS:

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: Titans -1.5

Why We’re Backing Tennessee

The public is heavy on the Colts as road underdogs in this matchup, yet the line has moved in favor of the Titans, a telling sign. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is set to return from injury, but his early-season passing metrics have been among the worst in the league. His accuracy and efficiency have been problematic, and we don’t expect him to find much success against a Titans defense that ranks in the Top 10 in defensive DVOA.

Anthony Richardson’s Struggles

While Richardson's athleticism is undeniable, his passing performance has left much to be desired. His return from injury isn't necessarily the boost Indianapolis needs. The Colts offense has performed just as well with backups like Joe Flacco under center, so Richardson’s presence doesn’t guarantee improvement, especially against a tough Titans defense.

Will Levis and Tennessee’s Offensive Potential

Backing Titans QB Will Levis might require some courage, but we believe he’s capable of bouncing back from his earlier mistakes. Tennessee is sticking with Levis after the bye week, giving him time to recover from a shoulder injury and reset mentally. If Levis falters, the Titans could turn to Mason Rudolph, who might actually be better suited to dissect Indianapolis' zone-heavy defense, which struggles with a weak secondary. Either way, we expect the Titans’ offense to take advantage of this “get-right” spot.

Colts’ Defensive Woes

Indianapolis has had major issues on defense, ranking near the bottom of the league in yards allowed. Injuries have decimated their defense, and though a few players may return, the overall problems remain. The Colts’ defense was shredded in their loss to Jacksonville, allowing 419 yards over the final 42 plays, or nearly 10 yards per play. Now, they head on the road for the second straight week, which doesn’t bode well for a unit that’s been on the field for an excessive number of snaps.

Titans’ Advantage Coming Off the Bye

The Titans have a remarkable track record following a bye week, having won eight straight games outright in such situations. While the coaching staff has changed, the core players seem to know how to prepare with extra rest. This game presents an ideal scenario for Tennessee to get their offense back on track against a Colts defense that’s been exposed repeatedly.

Final Verdict: Play Titans -1.5

The Colts are banged up and facing a Titans team coming off a bye, with a chance to reset and prepare for a crucial division game. Whether it’s Will Levis or Mason Rudolph under center, Tennessee should be able to exploit Indianapolis’ weak defense and come away with a win.

Predicted Score: Titans 24, Colts 17

Play Titans -1.5 as they take advantage of a struggling Colts team and extend their post-bye winning streak.

Results

Pick Made 8:30:00 PM, October 12, 2024