Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: Illinois + Points

Why Illinois is a Live Underdog

Illinois, led by head coach Bret Bielema, is back in form and looking like a serious contender. The Fighting Illini enter this matchup unbeaten at 4-0, with impressive wins over Kansas and a thrilling overtime victory against Nebraska. Bielema has a history of getting results as an underdog from his time at Wisconsin and Arkansas, and this season’s squad is starting to show that same grit.

• Improved Quarterback Play: One of the biggest differences for Illinois this season has been the emergence of Luke Altmyer, a former Ole Miss transfer. Last year, Altmyer’s four interceptions were a key factor in the Illini’s loss to Penn State, but this season he’s been a model of efficiency. He’s thrown for 10 touchdown passes without a single interception and is completing over 71% of his passes. His careful play has been exactly what Bielema ordered and has revitalized the Illini’s passing game.

Why Illinois Can Cover

• Past Success in Happy Valley: Illinois has fared well at Penn State, covering the spread in 8 of their last 11 trips to State College. They even pulled off a stunning outright win three seasons ago, making this a favored road trip for the Illini.

• Defensive Standouts: Illinois boasts one of the better pass defenses in the country. They haven’t allowed a single passing touchdown this season while racking up 10 interceptions and 10 sacks. This defense is for real and can disrupt Penn State’s aerial attack.

• Penn State Injury Concerns: The Nittany Lions have their own issues, with two projected starters sidelined for the season and standout linebacker Dominic DeLuca listed as questionable for this game. The lack of depth and injuries on defense could open the door for Illinois to move the ball effectively.

Penn State’s Vulnerability

• Inflated Win Over Inferior Opponent: Penn State’s blowout 56-0 win over Kent State might look impressive, but Kent State is arguably the worst team in the FBS. The Nittany Lions also barely escaped with a 7-point win against Bowling Green, a far less daunting opponent. Their inconsistency leaves room for an experienced, disciplined Illinois team to hang around.

• Spread Misjudgment: The spread seems to be underestimating Illinois’ offensive firepower. While Penn State’s high-powered offense is formidable, the improved play of Altmyer and Illinois’ underrated passing attack could keep this game much closer than expected.

Final Verdict

We don’t expect Illinois to necessarily pull off the upset, but there’s too much value here to pass up on them as a sizable underdog. The Illini’s improved offense and stingy pass defense should keep them competitive, and with Penn State’s injury concerns, this game could easily end up closer than the spread suggests.

Play Illinois +19 Points.