GAME TIME:
12:00:00 PM, September 29, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NFL

TEAMS:
ATL
Saints

PROP BET:
ATL -1.5 (-110)

UNIT: 1.0

ANALYSIS:

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: Falcons -1.5

Why Back the Falcons?

The current line of Falcons -1.5 might be the best value for Atlanta backers, as the Saints are getting too much love based on early-season results. New Orleans’ offensive explosions in Weeks 1 and 2 created a perception that the Saints are more dangerous than they actually are, leading to inflated lines. But the reality is that this Saints team has struggled to maintain that momentum, and the Falcons are primed to take advantage.

Saints’ Offensive Regression

The Saints were exposed in Week 3, scoring just 12 points against a vulnerable Eagles secondary. They were outgained by 241 yards and managed only 150 passing yards with Derek Carr at the helm. Now they face the league’s top safety duo in Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates, which doesn’t bode well for a struggling offense. The loss of two starting offensive linemen, center Erik McCoy and guard Cesar Ruiz, further complicates matters for New Orleans.

• Injuries Piling Up: Key players like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are listed as questionable, and defensive stalwart Demario Davis is ruled out. If either Kamara or Olave sits, the Saints’ offense becomes even more one-dimensional, allowing Atlanta’s defense to tighten the screws.

Atlanta’s Motivation and Home Advantage

The Falcons are coming off a game they had circled since last season. The Saints ran up the score on them in a 48-17 blowout to close the 2023 season, a move that has stuck with returning Atlanta players. While the Falcons have a new coaching staff, many of those players are still on the roster and will be eager for payback.

• Strength of Schedule Advantage: The Falcons are currently ranked second in strength of schedule, while the Saints sit at 27th. This disparity suggests that Atlanta is better battle-tested and capable of executing against tougher competition.

Final Verdict: Falcons’ Path to Victory

Despite Atlanta’s own offensive line injuries, the Falcons are still in a better position than the Saints, who have been decimated by injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. Atlanta’s run-first offense should be able to wear down a depleted New Orleans front seven. If Kamara and Olave are limited or out, expect the Falcons to control the pace and win by a comfortable margin.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Saints 17

With the Saints’ offensive line in shambles and key playmakers questionable, back Atlanta -1.5 to cover comfortably at home. This is a prime spot for the Falcons to assert themselves in the NFC South and gain revenge for last season’s embarrassing loss.

Results

Pick Made