GAME TIME:
11:45:00 AM, October 26, 2024

SPORT/LEAGUE:
NCAA Football

TEAMS:
Ark
Miss St

OVER/UNDER:
Under 58.5

UNIT: 1.0

ANALYSIS:

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: Betting Preview and Analysis

Pick: Under 58.5

Why We’re Backing the Under

This game flew under the radar initially, but with news that key offensive players for each team are likely out, it’s worth a closer look. Arkansas RB Ja’Quinden Jackson (592 rushing yards, 10 TDs, and 125 receiving yards) and Mississippi State WR Mario Craver (355 receiving yards, three TDs, and a punt return TD) are both expected to miss the matchup. With these two impact players sidelined, we see value in the Under for this game.

Offensive Impact of the Injuries

The absence of Jackson and Craver will significantly affect both teams’ offensive dynamics. Arkansas will lose a major threat in the backfield, limiting their rushing attack, while Mississippi State’s passing game will take a hit without one of its top playmakers. With each team missing a key weapon, sustaining high-scoring drives will be challenging.

Model’s Projection

Our model initially projected 53 points with both Jackson and Craver expected to play, indicating this total was already close. Now, with these absences, the likelihood of hitting the under becomes even stronger. While the model isn’t fully sentient (yet!), it has accounted for both players in previous outputs, and their absence only reinforces a lower-scoring outcome.

Final Verdict: Play the Under 58.5

With significant offensive firepower missing on both sides, the game is primed to fall under the total. Both teams will need to adjust their game plans, and without these primary weapons, we expect a more conservative and lower-scoring affair.

Predicted Score: Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 21

Play the Under 58.5, as the absence of Jackson and Craver should keep this SEC matchup in the lower-scoring range.

Results

Pick Made 4:00:00 PM, October 25, 2024